September 2022 | BUSINESS FLEET AFRICA
WWW.BUSINESSFLEETAFRICA.CO.ZA
year in July (vs. 19.1% in June), but were
supported by an extremely low base of
calculation, as economic activity was still
constrained due to COVID-19 restrictions
in July last year. On a monthly basis, total
consolidated airport flight movements
(passengers and freight) increased by
4.7% in July, after declining by a notable
13.1% in June. Even though a slight
recovery is evident, it still remains 9.0%
below May 2022 levels. Growth in Air
Freight continues to support the sector,
though annual growth moderated to only
1.6% in July vs. 7.4% year on year in June.
Additional growth is likely in future as the
international travel industry continues to
recover in the wake of COVID-19.
A theme that plays out continuously
in the transport sector remains the diver-
gence in trend between Road Freight and
Rail Freight. In recent years Road Freight
has clearly taken up the space created by
the continuous underperformance of the
rail industry caused by large-scale theft of
copper cables, insufficient maintenance,
lack of locomotives and corruption
amongst other factors, a narrative likely
to persist for some years to come.
Road Freight grew strongly in July by
a notable 25.3% on a year ago basis. This
is evident by the number of heavy trucks
on both the N3 and N4 toll routes that
have increased considerably compared
to a year ago, while the Road Freight
payload for the country as a whole
shows continuous growth. Conversely
the Rail Freight component of the Ctrack
Transport and Freight Index declined by
11.0% year on year, which represents
the fourth consecutive month of decline.
The transport of liquid fuels via
Transnet Pipelines (TPL) increased
substantially in the past three months,
with the pipeline component of the CTFI
up by 26.3% in July 2022 compared to a
year earlier. South Africa’s own produc-
tion of fuel has been on a downward
trend recently with four refineries clos-
ing down. South Africa once relied on
imports for hardly a third of its refined
fuel, but the situation has changed and
bigger volumes of final products now
need to be imported and transported via
pipelines to the Gauteng market.
The Sea Freight sub sector of the
CTFI increased by 0.6% in July compared
to a year ago, an improvement on the
contraction of 10.6% in June. The growth
was driven by a recovery in container
handling in recent months, at various
ports, while other cargo handling (break
& break-bulk) also increased during July.
The Storage and Handling sector
remained under pressure in July,
declining by 22.8% on an annual basis,
reflecting lower inventory levels in the
economy and a large decline in the value
of transhipments.
CTFI and GDP growth
While first quarter of 2022’s real GDP
growth was stronger than expected, the
economy lost momentum in the second
quarter due to the impact of the KZN
flooding, regular load shedding, higher
inflation and rising interest rates.
The June 2022 CTFI, reflecting activ-
ity in the transport and freight sector in
the second quarter (114.3 index level),
declined compared to the March index
level (166.8), confirming expectations of
a possible quarter on quarter contrac-
tion in economic growth during quarter
two. Fortunately the higher level of the
July Ctrack Transport and Freight Index,
at 116.3 (index level), signals a stronger
start to the third quarter of 2022.
“It is great to see that the Ctrack
Transport and Freight Index is hinting at
sustained recovery for the rest of the year
and this is a good indicator that South
Africa’s GDP will do the same thing in the
second half of 2022,”concluded Jordt. BFA
Table 1 Change in Ctrack Transport and Freight Index in July 2022
July 2022 Tables
Percentage change between
Rail
Road
Pipeline
Sea
Air
Storage and
handling
Ctrack Freight
Transport Index
Quarter to July 2022 vs July 2021 (y/y)
–11.0%
25.3%
26.3%
0.6%
12.2%
–22.8%
8.7%
July 2022 vs June 2022 (m/m)
–1.8%
3.0%
10.5%
7.6%
–4.1%
–2.7%
1.7%
Quarter to July 2022 vs. Quarter to Apr 2022 (q/q)
–5.9%
3.5%
27.5%
3.5%
–2.4%
–8.7%
0.7%
Note: The row highlighted in blue is the main Ctrack Transport and Freight Index values used.
Source: Ctrack and economistscoza, TNPA, StatsSA, SARS, N3and N4 toll concessions, ACSA, ACOC, IATA.
Graph 3 Air Freight sub-index vs. Ctrack Transport and Freight
Index
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
130
50
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Transport and freight index
Air
150
140
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
130
Jan-16
Graph 4 Rail vs. Road Freight sub-indices of the Ctrack Transport
and Freight Index
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Rail freight
Road freight