BUSINESS FLEET AFRICA | October 2023
WWW.BUSINESSFLEETAFRICA.CO.ZA
air cargo reflects multiple headwinds
still facing the global economy, par-
ticularly China’s weak performance in
production and exports. While air cargo
ton- kilometres (CTKs) to Africa increased
by 2.8% and consolidated airport flight
movements also increased, the number
of unscheduled flights that are typically
chartered for cargo purposes, as well
as cargo load on planes, both declined
during August.
The transport of liquid fuels via
Transnet Pipelines (TPL) increased by
2.3% compared to July, with the Pipeline
component of the Ctrack Transport and
Freight Index tracking moderately higher
on a quarterly basis (+3.1%) but remain-
ing deep into negative territory on an
annual basis, with declines of 15.4%
recorded (partly reflecting a high base of
calculation).
After being the star performer in
June, the Storage and Handling sub-sec-
tor of the Ctrack Transport and Freight
Index declined during July and further
in August, by 2.4% on a monthly basis,
while moving 3.9% below year-ago
levels. Inventory levels have recently
moved to lower levels within the econo-
my, which has had a spill-over effect on
storage and warehousing activity.
Ctrack TFI, GDP and GFCF growth
Although the Ctrack Transport and
Freight Index increased at a muted
rate, the extent of the transport
sector’s underperformance during the
second quarter came as a surprise. As
part of the Q2 GDP release, StatsSA
reported that “Transport was down on
the back of decreased land transport
and transport support services”. The
transport and communication sector
declined by 1.9% during the second
quarter (vs 1.1% in Q1) vs. total eco-
nomic growth of 0.6% (q/q, seasonally
adjusted). While the economic narrative
remains generally static, with ongoing
load-shedding, elevated interest
rates, a lacklustre job market and low
confidence levels, it is evident that
sector-specific challenges have also
played a role in the transport sector’s
underperformance during the second
quarter.
A snapshot of the correlation
between the transport equipment
sub-sector of real gross fixed capital
formation (GFCF) and the Ctrack TFI is
depicted in Graph 4. A fairly accurate
positive correlation is evident up to Q3
2022 when the impact of the Transnet
strike pushed the Ctrack Transport
and Freight Index notably lower and
disrupted the correlation. Worth noting
is two consecutive quarters of negative
quarterly growth in transport equipment
investment (Q1 and Q2 2023), potential-
ly reflecting the strain on the economy
at large and the logistics sector per se,
as reflected by the Ctrack Transport and
Freight Index. BFA
Table 1 Change in Ctrack Transport and Freight Index in August 2023
Percentage change between
Rail
Road
Pipeline
Sea
Air
Storage and
handling
Ctrack Freight
Transport Index
August 2023 vs August 2022 (y/y)
–7.0%
1.7%
–15.4%
–2.0%
–0.9%
–3.9%
–1.0%
August 2023 vs July 2023 (m/m)
–1.3%
–2.0%
2.3%
3.1%
–1.7%
–2.4%
–1.5%
Quarter to August 2023 vs. Quarter to May 2023 (q/q)
–3.7%
–5.1%
3.1%
8.2%
–7.0%
–0.2%
–3.5%
Note: The row highlighted in blue is the main Ctrack Transport and Freight Index values used.
Source: Ctrack and economistscoza, TNPA, StatsSA, SARS, N3 and N4 toll concessions, ACSA, ACOC, IATA.
STATSSA
Graph 4 Real GFCF (transport equipment) vs. Ctrack TFI (q/q change)
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
-40
GFCF - transport equipment
Ctrack TFI
201801
201901
202001
202101
202201
201803
201903
202003
202103
201802
201902
202002
202102
202202
202203
202301
202302
202204
201804
201904
202004
202104