BUSINESS FLEET AFRICA | October 2023
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TRANSPORT AND FREIGHT INDEX
The Ctrack Transport and Freight Index
retreated further during August 2023
to an index level of 118.8, the lowest
since February (116.7). This represents
a decrease of 1.5% during the month of
August, the third consecutive monthly
contraction and confirmation of the
ongoing strain in the logistics sector.
This retraction is evident across the
industry, with four of the six sub-sectors
measured by the Ctrack Transport
and Freight Index declining on both a
monthly and a quarterly basis. Overall,
the Ctrack Transport and Freight Index
also dipped into negative territory on
an annual basis for the first time since
February 2021, and it is clear that many
challenges remain for the sector.
“While government has started to
come to terms with the negative impact
that the underperformance of the sector
has on the broader economy, implemen-
tation of reforms is too slow and urgency
is required in order to reverse this
negative trend,” says Hein Jordt, Chief
Executive Officer of Ctrack.
Fragmented growth has char-
acterised the Ctrack Transport and
Freight Index sub-sectors over the past
few months, and with five of the six
sub-sectors now tracking lower than
a year earlier, the hope of a notable
recovery has faded. Only two of the six
sub-sectors of the Ctrack Transport and
Freight Index increased on a quarterly
basis during August 2023, with Road,
Rail and Air Freight the laggards. On
an annual basis, only the Road Freight
sub-sector recorded positive growth,
albeit at a muted pace. Road Freight
has always been the most resilient of
the sub-sectors, but annual growth has
subsided notably to only 1.7% year-on-
year during August 2023, a far cry from
annual growth of 28.2% experienced
in August 2022 and the lowest since
December 2020.
The Road Freight sector, the biggest
of the sub-sectors, has experienced mul-
tiple challenges in the past few months
and is still playing catch-up, as reflected
by a notable contraction on a quarterly
basis. A closer look at August’s figures
suggests that a tentative recovery is un-
derway, with road freight payload in the
country rising by 1.6% and heavy vehicle
traffic on the N3 increasing by 5.5% on a
monthly basis. The road freight industry
continues to benefit from the ongoing
rail freight woes, as reflected in data
published in StatsSA’s latest monthly
Land Transport Survey.
This sector remains a critically
important contributor to the South
African economy as trucks transport
80% of goods in the country. However,
the over-dependence on Road Freight,
which has become more pronounced
in the past few years, costs the South
African economy dearly as road freight
transport is more expensive than rail
and also raises the cost of road mainte-
nance. The recent surge of the inter-
national oil price, in combination with
renewed rand exchange rate depre-
ciation, has resulted in notable diesel
price increases, which will no doubt
Broad-based strain evident in
the logistics sector
Graph 1 Ctrack Transport and Freight Index – annual change
CTRACK
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
26.9%
-1.4%
4.5%
13.8%
7.7%
-1.0%
Graph 2 Quarterly growth in sub-components of the Ctrack Transport and Freight
Index (%)
CTRACK
Sea
8.2
Pipeline
3.1
Storage
-0.2
Rail
-3.7
Road
-5.1
Air
-7.0
-10% -8% -6%
-2%
-4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 10%