BUSINESS FLEET AFRICA | September 2023
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Table 1 Change in Ctrack Transport and Freight Index in July 2023
Percentage change between
Rail
Road
Pipeline
Sea
Air
Storage and
handling
Ctrack Freight
Transport Index
July 2023 vs July 2022 (y/y)
–6.2%
6.99%
–19.2%
–3.1%
–4.0%
7.8%
3.3%
July 2023 vs June 2023 (m/m)
–0.4%
–1.5%
0.8%
4.6%
–2.9%
–3.0%
–1.2%
Quarter to July 2023 vs. Quarter to April 2023 (q/q)
–4.4%
–3.1%
2.5%
6.3%
–4.5%
11.1%
–1.1%
Note: The row highlighted in blue is the main Ctrack Transport and Freight Index values used.
Source: Ctrack and economistscoza, TNPA, StatsSA, SARS, N3 and N4 toll concessions, ACSA, ACOC, IATA.
on the N3 route declined further during
July. While the road freight payload for
the country as a whole, as published by
StatsSA in its monthly Land Transport
Survey, remained flat on a monthly basis,
the Road Freight sector of the Ctrack
Transport and Freight Index declined
on both a monthly and quarterly basis
during July. This sector remains critically
important for the South African econo-
my as trucks carry around 80% of goods
in and around the country (source: Road
Freight Association).
The Rail Freight sub-sector also sub-
sided further in July, remaining deeply
in negative territory on an annual basis
and declining by a further 6,2% year on
year during July 2023, which represents
the 16th consecutive monthly decline.
The urgency of freight reform has been
reinforced in the Operation Vulindlela
update, which describes Transnet’s
decline as posing a material risk to the
country’s economic prospects, with
rail’s underperformance having resulted
in losses equivalent to 5,3% of gross
domestic product in 2021. “South Africa
continues to lose rail market share, with
Transnet Freight Rail volumes falling
short of targeted volumes – where our
rail system moves less than 40% of
rail-friendly freight tonne-kilometres,”
said the report.
Air Freight, which was one of 2022’s
star performers, has been under
pressure during the first half of 2023 and
declined by a further 2,9% on a monthly
basis during July while the sector
remains 4,0% below its position of a
year ago. According to the International
Air Transport Association (IATA), lower
demand for air cargo reflects multiple
headwinds still facing the global econ-
omy. While air cargo tonne-kilometres
(CTKs) to Africa was down by a further
2,8% in July, a few green shoots have
appeared. The number of unscheduled
flights that are typically chartered for
cargo purposes, as well as cargo load
on planes, both increased notably
during July.
The transport of liquid fuels via
Transnet Pipelines (TPL) increased
by 0,8% compared to June, with the
Pipeline component of the Ctrack
Transport and Freight Index tracking
moderately higher on a quarterly
basis (+2,5%) but remaining deep into
negative territory on an annual basis,
with declines of 19,2% recorded (partly
reflecting a high base of calculation).
After being the star performer in
June, the Storage and Handling sub-sec-
tor of the Ctrack Transport and Freight
Index declined again during July by 3,0%,
compared to June, while still tracking
7,8% higher annually. Ongoing issues in
the Rail and Road Freight sub-sectors
typically have spill-over effects on
storage and warehousing activity, and
this is the case once again.
“Given the lacklustre performance
across the majority of segments during
the last two months, we can only hope
that the industry gets a break from any
disruptions for the remainder of the year
in order for it to bounce back somewhat
and continue on its long-term growth
trajectory,” said Jordt.
Ctrack TFI and GDP growth
The second quarter GDP growth
outcome will be released imminently,
and we expect that the transport
sector will once again be among the
top sectoral performers and will most
likely have outperformed the broader
economy. Real economic growth of 0,7%
on a quarterly basis, seasonally adjusted,
is forecast for the economy (vs. 0,4%
in Q1), while the transport sector is
forecast to grow by 1,4% (vs. 1,1% in Q1).
While growth is forecast to be slightly
higher than in the first quarter, the
economic narrative remains generally
static, with ongoing load-shedding
(though some moderation is evident in
stages that applied), elevated interest
rates, a lacklustre job market and low
confidence levels still prevalent and
suppressing economic activity. However,
indications that some industries have be-
come progressively more resilient to the
effects of load-shedding, as companies
reduce their energy dependence on the
embattled Eskom, remains an underlying
positive development. BFA
20
15
10
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Real GDP growth
Transport Sector Growth
201801
201901
202001
202101
202201
201803
201903
202003
202103
201802
201902
202002
202102
202202
202203
202301
202302
202204
201804
201904
202004
202104
Graph 4 Real GDP vs. transport sector growth (q/q change)
STTATSSA