BUSINESS FLEET AFRICA | November 2022
WWW.BUSINESSFLEETAFRICA.CO.ZA
TRANSPORT AND FREIGHT INDEX
Following three consecutive months of
growth, the South African logistics sec-
tor as measured by the Ctrack Transport
and Freight Index declined margin-
ally during the month of September,
however the third quarter still returned
growth. The Ctrack Transport and
Freight Index (Ctrack TFI) declined by
0.1% on a monthly basis in September
compared to the revised growth of 2.2%
experienced in August, representing
annual growth of 12.8%, down from a
revised 13.7% in August.
Economic conditions in the South
African economy took a turn for the
worse during September, with Eskom
data confirming that the South African
economy experienced the worst-ever
month of load shedding, with 572 of
the month’s 720 hours directly affected.
Analysis by Eskom’s Research, Testing
and Development department further
showed that, besides 2021, there were
more power cuts in September 2022
than had been experienced in any
other entire year since load shedding
started in 2007. The negative impact
of load shedding reaches all spheres
of the economy, including the logistics
and supply chain sector. Companies
buckle under the inability to produce at
capacity, the cost of lost production, re-
duced productivity, the cost of providing
alternatives and reduced margins.
The sector continues to be plagued
by many challenges, including significant
fuel price increases in recent months,
rising interest rates, the higher cost of
tyres and spare parts, delays at ports,
sabotage and unrest, railway woes and
the negative impact of regular load
shedding. Despite these challenges,
the logistics sector proved to be largely
resilient with four of the six sectors
measured by the Ctrack Transport and
Freight Index increasing on an annual ba-
sis during September. While the broader
economic environment has a real effect
on all the sectors measured by the
Ctrack Transport and Freight Index,
there are still vastly different trends
evident in each of these sub-sectors.
Road Freight remains a strong
performer, followed by Air Freight, with
both sectors posting double-digit growth
in September compared to a year earlier,
while Rail Freight remains the regular
underperformer among the sub-sectors.
“Despite all the challenges that
continually batter this industry the
resilience of the transport industry and
especially Road Freight has continued to
surprise with continued growth despite
all these challenges, but I fear that is not
sustainable indefinitely,” says Hein Jordt,
Chief Executive Officer of Ctrack Africa.
The significant performance of
the Road Freight sector has been
an on going theme since mid-2020.
Although treading water in the month
of September, the Road Freight seg-
ment still increased by a notable 27.9%
compared to the same period last year, a
continuation of a positive growth streak
that started in January 2021. While the
number of heavy trucks on the N3 and
N4 toll routes remained unchanged on
a monthly basis in September, heavy
traffic still increased by 11% compared
to the same period last year. Among
other reasons the segment continues to
benefit from the on going underperfor-
mance of the rail industry.
Air Freight continued to show signs
of strain in September, with the Air
Freight segment of the Ctrack Transport
and Freight Index declining by 0.7%
compared to the previous month, which
is also the fourth consecutive monthly
decline. Despite these declines the seg-
ment is still tracking 12.2% higher than
it did at the same time last year. Total
consolidated airport flight movements
declined by 1.5% in September, but air
cargo recovered somewhat.
The transport of liquid fuels via
Transnet Pipelines (TPL) declined notably
in September, with the Pipeline segment
of the Ctrack Transport and Freight Index
declining by a 11.9% compared to the
previous month, but still tracking 4.3%
higher than the same period last year.
The shortage of refineries has created a
scenario where the country is increasingly
reliant on imports, and supply line disrup-
tions present a greater risk, as highlighted
by the recent Transnet strike that affected
operations at the Durban port.
The Sea Freight segment measured
by the Ctrack Transport and Freight
The South African logistics sector
treads water
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-21
Aug-22
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
4,4%
12,8%
Graph 1 Ctrack Transport and Freight Index % change on year ago