April 2023 | BUSINESS FLEET AFRICA
WWW.BUSINESSFLEETAFRICA.CO.ZA
Table 1 Change in Ctrack Transport and freight Index in February 2023
Percentage change between
Rail
Road
Pipeline
Sea
Air
Storage and
handling
Ctrack Freight
Transport Index
February 2023 vs February 2022 (y/y)
–20.9%
16.9%
–2.3%
–10.7%
2.0%
–20.5%
2.5%
February 2023 vs January 2022 (m/m)
6.4%
2.4%
4.3%
–0.2%
0.9%
–5.7%
1.7%
Quarter to February 2023 vs. Quarter to November 2022 (q/q)
–8.9%
3.9%
12.3%
5.0%
–0.7%
–15.9%
–0.3%
Note: The row highlighted in blue is the main Ctrack Transport and Freight Index values used.
Source: Ctrack and economistscoza, TNPA, StatsSA, SARS, N3 and N4 toll concessions, ACSA, ACOC, IATA.
This would represent a major U-turn
on a multi-year trend, and the report
noted: “This will require integrated
policy support, coordinated infrastruc-
ture investments and collaboration
amongst all key stakeholders. Without a
deliberate and coordinated local effort,
South Africa’s transport sector will be
on a trajectory that is inconsistent with
South Africa’s climate commitments
or Nationally Determined Contribution
under the Paris Agreement by 2030 and
inconsistent with net- zero by 2050.” The
report is part of a series of publications
from the Climate Pathways and Just
Transition Project run by the National
Business Initiative (NBI) in partnership
with Business Unity South Africa and
Boston Consulting Group.
“While reducing the number of vehi-
cles on the road is an easy way to reduce
emissions, that might not be possible
in a South African context. However, a
sophisticated and well-managed fleet
management system can significantly
contribute to the more efficient running
of large fleets, and in that way, emissions
can be reduced,” says Hein Jordt, Chief
Executive Officer of Ctrack Africa.
In February 2023, the Road Freight
component of the Ctrack Transport and
Freight Index increased by 16.9% on an
annual basis, the 23rd straight month
of double-digit annual growth rates
recorded. When examining this trend in
detail, some interesting, divergent trends
become evident. The number of heavy
trucks on the N4 toll routes increased by
double digits during February 2023, while
the number of heavy trucks on the N3 toll
route declined by 3.0%. During the same
period, overall road freight payload for
the country showed continuous growth.
The Air Freight sector, which turned
out to be one of 2022’s star performers,
had a mixed performance in February.
The Air Freight component of the Ctrack
Transport and Freight Index increased by
0.9% on a monthly basis in February and
was only 2.0% higher compared to a year
earlier (vs 4.6% year on year in January).
Cargo loaded onto planes increased by
8.7% on a monthly basis after having de-
clined for three straight months. All the
other underlying components of the Air
Freight sector declined. According to the
International Air Transport Association
(IATA), lower demand for air cargo is now
evident across the globe, reflecting the
multiple headwinds facing the global
economy and spilling over to trading
partner countries. Air cargo tonne-kilo-
metres (CTKs) to Africa declined by 9.5%
in February, following on from January’s
10% annual decline. Total consolidated
airport flight movements were down by
4.3%, the fourth consecutive monthly
decline.
The Sea Freight component of the
Ctrack Transport and Freight Index
declined by 10.7% in February compared
to a year ago and declined marginally on a
monthly basis (-0.2%), reflecting a month
of mixed performance at the ports.
Container handling declined by 7.0% on
a monthly basis in February and remains
24.5% below the September 2022
pre-strike level. General cargo handling
increased by 5.5% in February but also
remains 7.0% below pre-strike levels. The
Sea Freight sector only partially recov-
ered from the detrimental impact of the
Transnet strike in October 2022, confirm-
ing fears that it might be impossible for
the industry to recover fully.
The Storage and Handling sub-sector
of the Ctrack Transport and Freight Index
remained under pressure for most of
2022, with a trend of declining inventory
levels evident before the Transnet strike
made matters worse. The sub-sector
declined by 20.5% in February on an
annual basis, 5.7% on a monthly basis
and 15.9% on a quarterly basis.
The transport of liquid fuels via
Transnet Pipelines increased by 4.3% on
a monthly basis in February 2023, with
the pipeline component of the Ctrack
Transport and Freight Index improving
by 12.3% on a quarterly basis, however,
this is still 2.3% lower than a year earlier.
Ctrack TFI and GDP growth
The transport sector defied expectations
of under-performance in the fourth
quarter of 2022 to be the best sectoral
performer, admittedly amongst multiple
laggards. The negative impact of the
prolonged Transnet strike had depressed
the transport sector’s contribution,
with the sector growing by only 0.7%
on a quarterly seasonally adjusted basis
compared to growth of 3.6% in the third
quarter. However, given that the overall
economic performance was worse,
with real GDP contracting by 1.3% on a
quarterly seasonally adjusted basis, the
transport, storage and communication
sub-sectors were the star performers.
This talks to the resilience and diversity of
the sector, despite multiple headwinds.
The ongoing challenges of harsh load
shedding, high cost of living, high produc-
tion costs due to high fuel prices, rising
wage demands and elevated interest rates
all contributed to the country’s dismal
economic performance in the fourth
quarter of 2022. With little indication of a
notably different economic environment
in 2023, but rather even lower economic
growth forecasted for 2023 compared to
2022, the economic environment is ex-
pected to remain dismal and challenging.
“While a lot of focus remains on short-
term challenges, with many sectors and
companies in survival mode, government
and stakeholders must remain focused on
structural reforms to improve the efficien-
cy and competitiveness of the transport
sector in the long term and return to
thriving mode,” concludes Jordt. BFA