June 2023 | BUSINESS FLEET AFRICA
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Table 1 Change in Ctrack Transport and Freight Index in April 2023
Percentage change between
Rail
Road
Pipeline
Sea
Air
Storage and
handling
Ctrack Freight
Transport Index
April 2023 vs April 2022 (y/y)
–9.3%
14.8%
0.3%
–6.0%
–1.3%
–8.3%
5.6%
April 2023 vs March 2023 (m/m)
–0.3%
0.5%
1.2%
–0.2%
2.2%
9.8%
1.4%
Quarter to April 2023 vs. Quarter to January 2022 (q/q)
18.5%
5.8%
8.9%
0.4%
3.3%
1.6%
6.4%
Note: The row highlighted in blue is the main Ctrack Transport and Freight Index values used.
Source: Ctrack and economistscoza, TNPA, StatsSA, SARS, N3 and N4 toll concessions, ACSA, ACOC, IATA.
Ctrack Transport and Freight Index still
tracked 8.3% lower on an annual basis
during April.
The Air Freight segment of the
Ctrack Transport and Freight index,
which turned out to be one of 2022’s
star performers, started the year on
the back foot and only improved slightly
during April, with a 2.2% improvement.
However, it is still tracking 1.3% below
the same time last year, with the strain
on the global economy finally starting
to affect global air cargo activity.
According to the International Air
Transport Association (IATA), lower de-
mand for air cargo is evident across the
globe, reflecting multiple headwinds
facing the global economy and spilling
over to trading partner countries. Air
cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs) to Africa
decreased a further 6.2% in April, the
6th consecutive monthly decline. Cargo
loaded onto planes also declined by
2.1% on a monthly basis during April,
while total consolidated airport flight
movements dropped by 1.7%. The
number of unscheduled flights, typically
chartered for cargo purposes, was
the only sub-component to improve
during April.
The Sea Freight segment of the
Ctrack Transport and Freight Index,
one of the sub-segments hardest hit by
the Transnet strike in October 2022, is
still in a gradual recovery mode, and its
performance remains disappointing. Sea
Freight declined marginally in April and
remained 6.0% below levels of a year
ago and 19.3% below the September
2022 pre-strike level. Container
handling increased by a notable 27.2%
on a monthly basis during March but
lost those gains during April with an
11.4% decline.
Notable discrepancies remain
evident in the performance of the
various South African ports. In the
World Bank’s latest Container Port
Performance Index (CPPI), produced
by the Transport Global Practice of the
World Bank in collaboration with the
Global Intelligence & Analytics division
of S&P Global Market Intelligence
(published in May 23), South African
container terminals were among the
worst performing in the world. The
Ngqura (position 338), Durban (position
341), and Cape Town (position 344)
container terminals are in the bottom
ten of the 348 terminals ranked,
with the smaller terminal at Port
Elizabeth, the better performer in
291st position. Of interest was the
performance of other African ports,
such as our Mozambican neighbours,
with the terminal at Beira ranked
223rd and Maputo 248th, which is
far better than the South African
ports. This index measures container
port efficiency based on a myriad of
parameters, including terminal capacity
or space utilisation, cost, landside
connectivity and services, or ship-to-
shore interchange. The CPPI is based
on available empirical data pertaining
exclusively to time expended in a vessel
stay in a port and should be interpreted
as an indicative measure of container
port performance.
With all the sub-sectors of the
logistics sector complexed and
inter-twined, the dismal performance of
South African ports has triggered more
companies to redirect cargo towards
the Maputo harbour. The number of
heavy trucks on the N4 toll routes con-
tinues to increase notably on an annual
basis, while the number of heavy trucks
on the N3 toll route is not growing at
the same rate. In April 2023, the Road
Freight segment of the Ctrack Transport
and Freight Index increased by 14.8%
year-on-year, the 25th straight month
of double-digit annual growth rates
recorded and still the most resilient of
all the sub-sectors.
After reaching an all-time low in
January 2023, Rail Freight recovered
notably in February and March but
subsided again in April. The sub-sector
remains deeply in negative territory on
an annual basis, declining by 9.3% year
on year in March 2023, the 13th consec-
utive decline recorded and confirmation
that rail remains on the back foot.
“While recent policy-related
developments to revitalise the countries
rail network are considered positive,
there will need to be serious motivation
for transport operators to replace Road
Freight in favour of Rail transport once
again,” says Jordt.
The transport of liquid fuels via
Transnet Pipelines (TPL) increased by
1.2% on a monthly basis during April
2023, with the pipeline component of
the Ctrack Transport and Freight Index
now moving into positive territory on an
annual basis, for the first time in seven
months, with growth of 0.3%.
Ctrack TFI and GDP growth
The transport sector defied expec-
tations of underperformance in the
fourth quarter of 2022 to be the best
sectoral performer, and all indications
are that the transport sector once
again outperformed other sectors of
the South African economy during
the first quarter of 2023. The Ctrack
Transport and Freight Index mirrors this
performance with a significant increase
of 6.6% during the first quarter of 2023,
signalling a valuable positive contri-
bution to economic growth. Statistics
South Africa is expected to release
the real first quarter GDP growth rate
on Tuesday, June 6, with expectations
of a small positive quarterly growth
rate, allowing the economy to avert a
technical recession. BFA